The reason for this is two-fold. Firstly, it is of no interest to UEFA whatsoever to ban clubs who have huge amounts of debt or have a huge expenditure-revenue deficit from European competition. The clubs in this position are clearly the most successful and thus the key make-up of European club football. It would be of no commercial interest to UEFA to not have these teams in the competition – it makes no financial sense, and things that make no financial sense will never go anywhere, regardless of how morally or ethically right they may be.

Secondly, clubs will just find ways to secure extra revenue through the back door. Two high profile examples underpin this point. Firstly, Qatar Foundation’s $100 Million shirt sponsorship deal with FC Barcelona; a deal conveniently confirmed days after the World Cup bid process through which Qatar won the 2022 World Cup, helped by a vote from the Spanish Executive Committee member, coupled with the vote from the Asian Federation to Spain’s own 2018 bid. Quite why the government owned Foundation would invest such a sum of money on a market of very little value to what they do as a business is questionable. I bet not one Barcelona fan knows what the Qatar Foundation is or what they do.

Then we have the Manchester City / Etihad deal that was concluded last week. I’ve heard a lot of press refer to this as a “landmark deal”. That it is – at $400 Million there has never been anything like it. There’s a reason for that too – it makes no financial sense whatsoever. Of course, it’s a mere coincidence that the Abu Dhabi government owned football club should sign a sponsorship deal with the Abu Dhabi government owned airline (run by the half-brother of City owner Sheikh Mansour). Of course, it makes perfect sense that a company that has not even broken even as a business since its creation a decade ago should suddenly invest such a huge sum of money on a sports brand that, at best, can be said to be in its infancy. Predictions of ‘breaking even’ by 2011 by the Etihad CEO James Hogan clearly had not factored in this deal.

Clubs have asked for this deal to be scrutinized. As well they might as quite clearly it is a sham and a complete shambles, designed solely with the purpose of meeting FFP guidelines in the next 2 years. Quite where the ROI is for Etihad on this deal is beyond me – It not only costs over a $100 Million more than the last similar sports sponsorship deal of its kind (see New York Mets deal with Citibank) but is way beyond any market value assessment of what a deal of this nature with the City brand should cost. That is aside from the obvious conflict of interest by the fact that both organizations are, essentially, owned by the same people. This is also just one Abu Dhabi based sponsor of City – and we can expect to see plenty more in the coming decade, none of which will be concluded on the cheap.

Even the most hardened city fans cannot offer any sort of defence or justification for this. They would be up in arms if Chelsea had suddenly signed a sponsorship deal with a mystery Russian oil company for hundreds of millions of dollars.

This is, of course, a new era for football ownership and UEFA (or more specifically FIFA) have made a rod for their own back by even allowing people like Abramovic and Mansour to own clubs in the first place. Well intentioned they may be, yet the only thing that will result from these FFP rules is more corruption, more back-handed deals, increased under-the-table fees to third parties, and absolutely everything but ‘fair play’.

 Jon Connell

Wenger has insisted that the blame sits firmly with him for Arsenal’s failure this season to bring silverware back to North London.

                I’ve heard many people suggesting that such a trophy-less spell under the stewardship of one manager would not be tolerated on the continent. Probably not – but this is a fairly disingenuous argument. On the continent, neither would a manager be afforded the time to build such long lasting foundations and a unique legacy on the culture and history of a football club like Wenger has done at Arsenal. It is easy to forget where Arsenal were when Wenger took charge. Though consistently a top 8 side in England’s top division they were rarely title challengers. Wenger took Arsenal from occasional domestic cup winners to league champions and the second best team in the country in a long standing battle for supremacy with Manchester United. This was done not by spending a great deal of money – more by Wenger both inheriting an already strong squad and adding to it with young players from the continent that proved to be able to adapt to the Premier League almost instantly. It is hard to see the equivalent now in today’s game, nor the potential for it, where money is key.

                With longevity only surpassed by his great rival Sir Alex Ferguson, Wenger has implanted on Arsenal a code of conduct both on the field of play and the way they conduct their business. There is a club, much like at United and in the great legacies of days gone (Clough, Revie, Shankly), where the manager is the pivotal figure in driving the club forward. The problem is – the game changes, and those invested in it must change also. Ferguson has proved adept at doing this. In the face of such an overhaul of the rule book in the Premier League order when Roman Abramovich’s billions started a financial arms race in European football, Ferguson recovered from the initial shock inflicted by Jose Mourinho’s two title winning years, to  once again establish United as the strongest side in the country.

                Here lies the problem for Wenger; Arsenal have not been able to do this. The club’s last trophy, the 2005 FA Cup, and the baron spell that has followed, coincides with Chelsea’s rise. Whereas United adjusted, adapted, Arsenal have stuck to the principles that served them so well years before. This could be understood for a 2 or 3 seasons. There were, after all, four years between Wenger’s Premier League titles in 1998 and 2002.

                Football though, thanks largely to Sky and the Champions League and the riches they brought – is no longer a sport – it is a business. As in business, when the market changes, the company must adapt to stay competitive and as a leader in its industry. Failure to do so runs the risk of being overtaken by rivals both domestically and abroad.  

                The question is not should a side go six years without a trophy. The question that needs to be asked is should this Arsenal side go six year’s without a trophy – and the answer is yes it probably should. Unlike most of the league, Arsenal have not been priced out of the competition by Chelsea and now Manchester City. They have money to spend and have chosen not to spend it. That is not grounds to criticize in isolation. Where the problem lies is in persistently ignoring frailties in the existing squad and choosing not to purchase suitable players to solve these problems.

                Arsenal’s rivals would not retain faith in any of three goalkeepers, none of whom are talented enough or experienced enough to play 38 Premier League games a season. Nor would they allow themselves to be left with no defensive experience. These are not frailties over one season. These problems have existed for at least 4 years. The triumvirate of Campbell, Toure and Vieira has never been replaced – especially Vieira, whose presence in midfield has been filled by young, flimsy and inexperienced players a generation short of the great Frenchman’s qualities.

                Taking Arsenal’s team sheet yesterday as an example; Laurent Koscielny or Johan Djourou were painfully exposed by a Bolton team who the previous week had offered nothing in a 5 goal defeat to Stoke. The winning goal – a header from a corner – came not from a powerhouse like Kevin Davies, Zat Knight or Gary Cahill – but from the slender, under 6 foot frame, of Tamir Cohen. Those two aforementioned defenders would not get anywhere near the starting 11 of Arsenal’s main rivals both in England and in Europe.

                Wenger speaks of mental strength but mental toughness is an exceedingly rare quality in sport amongst young competitors. Often mental strength comes from an experience of winning, from a very early age, right through to the peak years of their career. Where United succeed is that what youth they do bring through, or indeed from abroad, is immediately surrounded by a squad with vast experience of winning medals. Arsenal simply don’t have any winners left – other than the manager himself. They are, of course, surrounded by some very good players but ability accounts for only half the player’s design. Wenger is right to champion mental toughness but this is clearly Arsenal’s main weakness and this has been horribly exposed in his side’s failure to seal victories that looked assured in the last few weeks. The greatest flaw in any sportsman is not to play badly every now again – it is to save one’s worst performances for the occasions that matter the most.

                This is not a crisis for Arsenal. Wenger has insured that they are firmly established as one of the top clubs in the country and his legacy will keep the club, at the very least, in contention for medals long after he has gone. For Wenger himself though, this must surely feel like a crisis. He has looked a man who is slowly realizing that what he believes in is no longer holds any weight in the world he operates in, and who doesn’t quite know what to do about it. He need not think that he has taken the club as far as he can – that is not true. He has though, taken the club as far as it can go with much of the squad in which he has invested so much faith, and under the methods he believes in so devoutly. He needs to surround himself with people who know how to win and know how to win in the post-2005 game. This should start off the pitch, in his coaching staff, or his assistant. On the pitch there are players who have had an opportunity and not delivered, and on a consistent basis, and they need to be removed and replaced – not persevered with because of the occasional flash of promise. Youth has a place of course, but this needs to be balanced with experienced professionals who know how to win.

                Arsenal are not far off, but the margin of victory is irrelevant – winning is winning – and, at the moment, Arsenal have forgotten how to do this.

 Mourinho’s point is somewhat non-sensical. Everybody knows there is a huge difference between club and country and trying to compare one as a ‘bigger deal’ over the other is hugely dependant on who’s doing the comparing. As a global product the World Cup is the biggest sporting event in the world – the European Champions League is not. Most in the UK will have a casual interest in what happens Saturday night and most of that interest will be on what Mourinho might do or say in the build up or in post match interviews. No, the Champions League is not bigger than the World Cup, unless, of course, you are an Inter or Bayern fan.

 Yet, while we’re on the subject of making unhelpful comparisons of grandeur, I’d argue that an even bigger game – in terms of what’s at stake – takes place before a ball is kicked in Madrid on Saturday night. The Play-Off final for the right to play in next seasons Premier League is the most financially lucrative match in world football – made even more so by the Premier League’s newly negotiated global television deal, signed late last year. For either Blackpool or Cardiff, the prize could potentially rise into the hundreds of millions. Now, surely that’s a bigger prize than the Jules Rimet trophy?

I jest of course. I, like every other football fan, can barely contain my excitement for the month long football feast that is just three weeks away from us. Many may even see the two finals on Saturday as something to watch – a hurdle – in the countdown to South Africa. Blackpool and Cardiff fans certainly will not. With the fairly predictable promotions of Newcastle and West Brom it has once again been left down to the play offs to provide a crumb of refreshment as two Premier League virgins meet for a shot at the big time.

 For Blackpool this is an extraordinary achievement. For the club to be one game away from the Premiership is staggering. They are a club with a proud history and heritage but have endured fairly bleak and lean recent years on the pitch. With next to no budget and a manager who has had to recover from the emotional strain of relegation with Leicester two years ago, there path to Wembley is as charming as it is unpredictable. Ian Holloway is a character that irritates as much as he delights but he is undoubtedly an honest professional and a superb man manager – if one can live with his methods! He has taken un-fancied players and moulded a team designed on hard work, togetherness and resolve. In Charlie Adam they have one of the players of the season after his release from Rangers a year ago.

 Their opponents Cardiff arguably go into the game as favourites, if only for their recent efforts to get out of the Championship and a run to the FA Cup final two years ago. They have a blend of youth and experience and there is certainly more of a feel that this needs to be the time for them to get promoted with increased financial support being handed out to relegated teams in the future. Financially they probably need promotion too although they can certainly rely on collecting good transfer fees for a few of their key players. Peter Whittingham has been arguably the Championship player of the year, scoring 23 goals from the left wing. He has been ably supported by the consistently prolific Michael Chopra and an excellent midfield engine run by Joe Ledley. They also have a vastly experienced manager who will be desperate to get this team – which he has invested some years in now – into the big league.

Whoever wins on Saturday both will know it will be a difficult task to retain a place in the Premier League beyond one year. There is little doubt that the three that go up will be of greater strength than the three going down and it looks set to be another congested bottom half of the season next season. It is too early and largely unfair to make predictions as to who is better equipped to make a better fight of it next season, suffice to say that neither will follow the Portsmouth model of spending beyond their means, regardless of the generous money afforded to them by the Premier League. For the moment let us enjoy the fact that another newbie will grace the big league next year and the army of noisy fans they will bring with them.

 Many would disagree. A lack of silverware in five seasons does not hold up as strong evidence that Wenger’s great plan has really reached fruition regardless of how close they have been on numerous occasions. His hand has not been forced to take this approach but Wenger has resolutely stuck to his belief that buying young is best in the knowledge, back up by some pretty obvious case studies, that a Barclays Premier League club can be a very fragile financial entity indeed. He has also had the luxury to be able to sell players when he felt the time was correct. Thierry Henry and Patrick Vieira left the club when Wenger knew they were past their best. They could be replaced. Likewise Emmanual Adebayor and Kolo Toure were happily shown the door. If anything, Wenger waited a year too long in their cases.

In Fabregas though, they have a 23 year old yet to reach the peak of his professional career. He is an established world class player with better years ahead of him – and he wants out because he has lost faith in Wenger’s idealistic belief that this Arsenal team can win the very biggest of trophies. A sale like this, and for a reason like that, can paint a damaging picture of a ‘selling club’; a club that cannot meet the ambitions of its greatest players. People can point to the Ronaldo sale last summer but the situation there is different. Ronaldo had won major honours at United and he had personal reasons to join Madrid – who are in no way a footballing step up from United. Likewise Fabregas has personal ambition to rejoin Barcelona, the club he left just after his sixteenth birthday for North London where his development has taken place. It is too naive a view to suggest that players like Fabregas owe their clubs anything. Of course, if he hadn’t have joined Arsenal who knows if he’d have been the player he is today? By the same token, though, he has contributed seven years of his career to Arsenal and has just an FA Cup winners medal to show for it. It is not unreasonable to assume that Barcelona can guarantee more silverware than that.

 This is certainly a more significant loss for Arsenal than it is a gain for Barcelona. Whenever there is a presidential election at one of Spain’s big two there is the inevitable furore that follows as star names are cast around as campaign propaganda. Fabregas is no different in this situation. The signing of David Villa from Valencia has been completed before the elections were, which suggests that is a deal that has long been planned by the club and Juan Laporta, regardless of who replaces him. Fabregas will surely seek assurances from Pep Guardiola as to where he fits into the managers plans as Barcelona’s attacking options are starting to look fairly overfilled. One has to assume that Xavi and Andres Iniesta are un-droppable, as are Lionel Messi and now Villa. Guardiola favours playing a defensive holding midfielder in either Keita or Yaya Toure, and replacing them with Fabregas seems destined to upset the balance of the team. The solution may be to shunt Iniesta out wide on one flank with Messi roaming around the other and Villa through the middle. That though, would mean losing Pedro, who has been sensational this season, or getting rid of Zlatan Ibrahimovic, who has scored 21 goals after costing an absolute fortune last summer. Interesting decisions are going to have to be made.

 We shall have to wait with trepidation as to where this will leave Arsenal. Players have left Arsenal under Wenger before and few have gone on to really further their careers. As stated previously, most were allowed to leave when they were past their best, but there have been a few exceptions. Ashley Cole’s controversial move to Chelsea has seen him win medals and Emmanual Adebayor still has time to find success. Nicholas Anelka left when he was young and has floated around for a long time before winning medals at Chelsea. Jose Reyes has faded to relative obscurity. No player is irreplaceable, not even Fabregas. Arsenal are in a favourable position of being able to take a substantial transfer fee, which Wenger may finally be forced to use to attract some established quality. It is unlikely, however. It is the way the genius of the man works that he can pluck a youngster and build them into a world class player. It is what marks him out as one of the greatest managers in the modern game and, frustrating as it surely is for Arsenal fans, he will sooner find a replacement for Fabregas in a 17 year old than in a 26 year old Brazilian.

Firstly, this is not the biggest game in the history of Manchester City. Victory tonight does not guarantee fourth place, although the most ardent of West Ham fans would be expecting them to upset the odds on Sunday. Moreover, making statements like that conveniently ignores the clubs history itself and in many ways disrespects it. Little over a decade ago the club were contesting a play off final to get out of what is now League 1. Surely that has more of claim to be the biggest game in the clubs history? If they had not have won that match who knows where City would be now. City might not have won a trophy for 34 years but surely that cup final in 1976 was a bigger game than this one tonight. There is no trophy for finishing 4^th.

Of course, football has changed since 1976. Football is now an industry dominated by financial strength and inequality, of which Manchester City sit right at the top. Their financial muscle has, rightly or wrongly, given them a genuine chance to compete with the established elite but it is an accepted fact that to really attract the quality of player they desire, they need to be offering the pinnacle of club competition – the Champions League. How accurate this assumption is, is a matter of some debate. An interview over the weekend with Tottenham’s Benoit Asso-Ekkotto revealed, for him personally at least, that football players are not motivated by loyalty or ambition but by money. Just as in any other industry, the desire to further oneself financially is of upmost importance. And why not? While Assou-Ekotto’s move from Lens to Tottenham is a move that can be explained by more than just money (the Premier League being a far better league than Ligue 1; Spurs being a bigger club than Lens), he is probably right. There is no such thing as loyalty in football. It is a make-believe notion held by fans – who bankroll the industry – that bears no resemblance to reality. City’s failed transfer targets last season seemed at first glance laughable – and with Kaka they certainly were – but John Terry’s decision to wait several weeks before taking an improved contract offer from Chelsea before suddenly reaffirming his undivided loyalty to the club as bizarre. And why would John Terry leave Chelsea for Manchester City? Money of course, not that John Terry’s moral compass has been all that reliable since August.

City’s assembled cast of mercenaries, some of whom left bigger clubs (Adebayor, Toure, Tevez), are on the brink of getting what they want. If players had genuine ambition to succeed in the sport (and by that I mean medals, not pounds) they would not move to Manchester City. Those players essentially wrote off one, maybe two if the result goes against them tonight, years of their career to pursue this ‘project’ at Eastlands. If City claim fourth, players will not be writing off years of their career. They will be moving to a club that can genuinely expect to be challenging for major honours. However, with City it is not paramount they finish 4^th this season. They can readily invest more money in the summer and will definitely be there or there about’s next season. It is, in a sense, merely prolonging the inevitable.

No, the team that tonight is really big for is Tottenham. They have been there all season, they too have invested a lot of money over the last 18 months (albeit within their own means – they actually announced profits of £25 million earlier this month) and with the financial clout at City and the established order looking as dominant as ever this will be an opportunity that will probably not materialise again should they fail. Harry Redknapp is right when he says Tottenham will not have failed if they don’t get 4^th. This is a team that he mostly inherited, regardless of how expensively it was assembled, that was sitting in the relegation places last October. It’s a staggering turnaround for them to be where they are. They have invested some £150 million in the last two years, although have recouped a good portion of this thanks to that hugely extravagant sale of Dimitar Berbatov, Portsmouth’s over the odds signings and Liverpool’s botched signing of Robbie Keane. But players have also grown under Redknapp. Gareth Bale, Michael Dawson, Tom Huddlestone and even Luca Modric have improved dramatically under his stewardship and were by no means guaranteed class when signed. Tottenham have an excellent squad, but it is not a world class squad. The benefit from one or two truly top class players and for success against the very elite, consistently, you need much more.

Regardless of who wins this game tonight it is refreshing for the league. While the title race will dominate television coverage on Sunday – fairly pointlessly given the absolute certainty that Chelsea will beat Wigan and win the title – it is great that a big game in May does not involve any of the established ‘big four’. City are there to stay and, no matter how utterly superficial any success they achieve is, success is guaranteed regardless of victory tonight. Tottenham will not have another chance to finish in the top four for some time to come if they do not manage it in the next five days.

JC

This is also a weekend riddled with conspiracies and sub plots. Some say Liverpool will allow Chelsea to beat them because they don’t want United to surpass their record haul of league titles. Some say Steve Bruce will do his old manager a favour and allow United a victory at Sunderland. Some think we’re installed for a fantastic Sunday afternoon. The latter of those ‘some’ would be correct. Liverpool will try to beat Chelsea, just as Sunderland will try to beat United – and both games will be close and thoroughly competitive.

Much may well rest on the outcome of tonight’s fixture at Anfield as Liverpool face Atletico Madrid in the second leg of their Europa League semi-final. A disastrous season could be somewhat rescued by a cup final appearance and that could justifiably come into the consideration of Rafa Benitez when he selects his team to play on Sunday. Furthermore, any realistic chance of Liverpool finishing fourth could all have been extinguished should Tottenham and Manchester City win on Saturday, leaving Liverpool with very little to play for in the league. That, of course, does not mean they won’t go for a victory on Sunday; it merely gives some weight to the idea of moving their focus to a cup final, much like a team that has reached the FA Cup final and has little to play for in the league.

LIVERPOOL VS CHELSEA (SUNDAY, SKY SPORTS)

This will be tense, frenetic and should be a fantastic game. I think Chelsea have to win here and next week to win the title and that will not be easy, no matter how much of a favour Liverpool will inadvertently hand United. Liverpool have lost just two games at home this season, to Aston Villa and Arsenal, and this is their final home game of the season. It could, of course, also be Rafael Benitez’s last game at Anfield. I think they’ll match Chelsea in work rate but without Fernando Torres it will be hugely reliant on the performance of Steven Gerrard if they are to score against Chelsea. For Chelsea, this is an away game they simply have to get right. They were awful at Tottenham and followed that by destroying Stoke at home. Given the amount riding on this and it being essentially ‘the’ game as far as the title goes for Chelsea, I think they’ll perform strongly and win. But it will be oh so tight.

Verdict: 0-1

SUNDERLAND VS MANCHESTER UNITED (SUNDAY, SKYSPORTS)

Much like Chelsea’s game at Anfield I think this will be a hugely difficult game for the visitors. Sunderland have been on a great run of form and in Darren Bent have a genuine goal scorer in terrific form. It is also their last home game of the season and Steve Bruce, who has not enjoyed a great record against Sir Alex Ferguson, would love to win the game. There are no favours in football and it is a big deal for a club like Sunderland, or most other clubs for that matter, to beat Manchester United, and make no mistake about it they will have a real go on Sunday. Without Rooney, United were impressive against a lacklustre Spurs last week but this is not in the haven of Old Trafford and I think this will expose their vulnerability of not having Rooney in their ranks.

Verdict: 1-1

MANCHESTER CITY VS ASTON VILLA

I still feel the race for fourth is in City’s hands, only by the fact that they have the games at home against their rivals. They will have to win here because Spurs will surely reach 70 points as a minimum and City would be under massive pressure on Wednesday if points were dropped here. Villa have had a great season and great few weeks but I just think this game is a step too far. Should be good game this, assuming Mancini does not approach it as negatively as he has the last two matches, which surely he won’t. Villa will go for it; a point is no good and even a win still relies on favours elsewhere. I think though, City will just shade it.

Verdict: 2-0

TOTTENHAM VS BOLTON

If it wasn’t for the fact that Spurs have dropped some points in games they just should never be dropping points in this season I’d be labelling this a home banker. They were desperately non-existent last week at Old Trafford, once again failing to live up to potential in a big game away from home. Bolton are safe and can approach this game with a certain freedom, which can be good and bad. I expect a Tottenham win, with the ultimate deciding factor for the race for fourth coming the following Wednesday at Eastlands.

Verdict: 2-0

BIRMINGHAM VS BURNLEY

Birmingham were hugely unlucky to lose at Villa Park last week, though that was no excuse for the behaviour of their manager and players during and after the game. They threw everything into last week and it will have been a huge emotional blow to have lost in that manner. Burnley have had a rocky season but should go down with heart and confidence that they can return. They had some great matches at the start of the season and it’s a shame that could not last. Could be one of those end of season games this where you genuinely don’t know what will happen.

Verdict: 3-1

PORTSMOUTH VS WOLVES

Pompey are counting the days to Wembley and can approach this game with complete abandon. They were impressive again last week salvaging a draw at Bolton and they are more than capable of giving anyone a game. Wolves have been excellent over the last few weeks in securing their survival but, though Mick McCarthy will be keen to avoid it, there might be a bit of the ‘sitting on the beach already syndrome’ going on.

Verdict: 2-1

STOKE VS EVERTON

Stoke have faded badly in the last few weeks and were totally rolled over at Stamford Bridge. Everton have had a terrific season that could have been oh so much better if they had started as well as they are finishing. They have a chance of catching Liverpool and I think they’ll believe they can do that until the end.

Verdict: 0-1

FULHAM VS WEST HAM (SUNDAY)

IF Fulham have reached the Europa League final no-one would begrudge Roy Hodgson resting a few for this encounter. West Ham secured their safety last week but would love one more point just to make absolutely, mathematically, sure.

Verdict: 1-1

BLACKBURN VS ARSENAL (MONDAY)

Could be a good one this; it’s another of those end of season games where both teams can play with real freedom. I fancy a few goals here as Blackburn have been good at home and Arsene Wenger will be keen to finish the season strongly and more impressively then the last two outings.

Verdict: 2-3

WIGAN VS HULL

Hull are down, in a mess and have a lot of long term problems. For this game and thus for next week they are playing for pride but I think the fight and belief has been sadly missing for over a year now. Wigan, as unpredictable as they are, have done OK this season. Staying up is an achievement and I think they can build in the summer and keep faith with Martinez. Doesn’t exactly scream classic this one, but I fancy Wigan to edge it.

Verdict: 1-0

JC

It seems a good idea in principle. Giving more money to lower league sides can only be a good thing and should improve the standard and competitiveness within and between divisions. Under the current proposals, that will be discussed at the Premier Leagues AGM in June, clubs in the Championship will pocket around £2.2 million a year, almost treble what they currently receive and this will, of course, also be on top of what they currently receive from the Football League for their own TV deal.

This, however, seems to be where the equality ends. In comparison clubs in League 1 will receive just £325,000 and clubs in League 2 will get £250,000. While these figures are significant increases in what they currently receive they still pale in comparison to what they could be receiving in the Championship. Furthermore, there are proposals that will increase ‘parachute payments’, handed out to clubs relegated from the Premiership to around £48 million over 4 years (around £12 million a year). This does not seem like a plan where the gulf between top and bottom is being reduced.

There is an argument that these clubs are lucky to get anything at all. This is not a scenario that takes place in most European leagues; in Spain there is still a system where clubs negotiate their own TV deals and thus there is almost no competitiveness whatsoever outside of the Real Madrid – Barcelona monopoly at the top of La Liga. Given though the sheer scale of the figures being thrown into TV deals and the FA and Premier Leagues desire to protect football in this country, it is only right and should really be a legal obligation for wealth to be shared. The Football League is unique to England, there is no other system like it in major European countries and thus it needs to be protected and financially supported.

While the intentions are undoubtedly good the figures being suggested just will not work in practice. Parachute payments should be removed altogether or at the very least be restricted to a one off, one year payment to compensate for loss of revenue. Yet with that in mind, clubs need to be encouraged to be responsible with their spending. It’s great to get promoted to the Premier League and be handed a huge sum of TV money but gambling on spending most or all of it on players and their wages in the hope of staying up and covering outlay at the start of the next season is not sustainable and needs to be prevented. Parachute payments are essentially rewarding failure, not to mention giving a hugely unfair advantage to that club over the other clubs in their new division. They can not only afford to buy players but more importantly can afford to keep players on significantly higher wages than can be offered by their rivals.

Under the current proposals it seems realistic to expect that there will become an almost predictable interchange of 6-8 clubs between Premier League and Championship with little chance of other clubs challenging for the top 2 positions in the Championship table. It promotes the idea of moving from tight budget restraints of being a Championship club to spending excessively within 3 months, a process that then becomes unsustainable should the club get relegated.

I’m not promoting total equality. Of course there should be financial incentives and rewards for moving up through the divisions but this should be more evenly spread across the divisions. The gulf between Premier League and Championship is fairly substantial but at this point the same cannot really be said of the 3 Football League divisions. These proposals are a start but are still a way off from offering a truly fair and long term solution. Should they get through in June it’s another swipe at the true spirit of the game and another axe chop at the romance of the sport.

JC

Portsmouth became the first Premier League side to enter administration after years of leadership that can at best be seen` as naive, though more realistically be described as stupidity, and their prospects of even continuing to exist as a football club remains a very open question. Clubs need to learn that they must live within their means. Gambling by plunging the team into debt to pay huge transfer fees and high wages in the hope of a return of investment by on-field success has got to stop. While the likes of Manchester United and Real Madrid can get away with sitting in huge amounts of debt because of the enormous commercial revenue they bring in; clubs like Portsmouth and Hull cannot. There seems to be some misconception that a club the size of Hull or Portsmouth can make huge amounts of money through ticket sales and commercial revenue. The big teams are global commodities. They will always make money regardless of the debts they have but there are only a handful of clubs that can do this. Chelsea are still not anywhere near to being financially self-sufficient after the vast wealth Roman Abramovich has poured into the club. Leeds United were never going to make enough money to support their outlay. Even Manchester City, who have spent obscene amounts of money are not going to make anywhere near as much in prize money or commercial revenue for years to come. They are fortunate, however, that their financial backing comes not from loans but from the personal finances of the Abu Dhabi royal family.

I feel especially sorry for Adam Pearson, the Hull City chairman, who oversaw the club from their rise from League 2 and Boothry Crescent to the Premier League and their impressive KC Stadium. He left the club before Hull’s final promotion to the top flight and has since returned earlier this season to inherit staggering amounts of financial misuse and debt. On field mistakes that Hull have made are more obvious and plainly outlined by George Boateng earlier this week, who pointed to poor management and a lack of team ethic at the club that has plagued them since that December day at Eastlands in 2008 when Phil Brown saw it fit to conduct a half time team talk on the pitch. Their relegation has been an inevitability waiting to happen since that day. They stayed up courtesy of the failings of others last year, principally Newcastle, and have done little this season to suggest they would ever amount enough points to survive.

The club finds itself in near £40 million worth of debt courtesy of spending huge amounts of money on average players and on ridiculous contracts. Not one of Hull’s high earners has a clause in their contract stipulating a wage drop in the event of relegation. Jimmy Bullard, who was signed for £5 million last January, has played 15 games for the club and was offered around £50,000 a week on a long term contract despite the fact he is into his 30’s. Jimmy Bullard is a fine player but a club like Hull cannot pay a player wages like that. Hull now have an ageing squad, on high paying long term contracts with next to no resale value. No wonder Pearson is considering his future at the club.

Even Chelsea are waking up to the reality that there needs to be more common sense regarding players contracts. The days when a player into his 30’s demanding a pay rise and a long term contract are gone. This summer will surely see a significant exodus from Chelsea, with Michael Ballack leading the way. This is common sense, and it seems to have completed deserted some clubs. I read yesterday about a possible mass exodus at City too, but who is 30 year old Craig Bellamy going to move to that will match his wages of £80,000 a week when, as good as he has been this season, has a limited amount of time left to be a top class player in the Premier League.

Players wages are a touchy subject anyway. They provide handy ammunition to every ignorant football-basher but there has got to be a realisation that clubs must start adopting a wage strategy that fits into the financial capability of the club. Showing disgust at the wages Manchester City are paying is all well and good, but at least they have the money to cover it. The percentage of expenditure afforded to wages at Hull and Portsmouth is totally out of sync to the clubs budget – it is a guaranteed path to ruin. This season should teach a lot of lessons that need to be learnt by every football club in Britain. Contracts and wages need tighter scrutiny, as does financial outlay in general over the course of the season. Burnley, came up and have been relegated immediately, but they will move back to the Championship financially better off than they were a year ago. They may not have been successful but they have laid the foundations for future success by prudent planning and sensible budgeting. They will have a great chance to come back straight away next season, while Hull will almost certainly struggle. Theirs is a model newly promoted clubs realistically have to take, rather than throwing money at delusions of grandeur that almost never materialise for smaller clubs.

This is, of course, followed conversely by the unavoidable truth that money can buy success. Leeds bought their way to the Champions League before failing spectacularly. Portsmouth bought their way to the Premier League and an FA Cup before falling spectacularly. Chelsea bought their way to the top of the English game. Manchester City will buy their way to the top of the English game, if not this season then in the near future. Chelsea and City rely on the fortunes of personal backers so there is less scope for a financial collapse but their success, however expensive, is obvious. For clubs not fortunate enough to have wealthy chairman though, this is a unobtainable vision. It simply does not work. It is a quick and superficial way to have a taste of success that is built on flimsy foundations of debt that will inevitably collapse and clubs need to realise this, and fast. It’s frustrating for fans because competing with clubs like Chelsea, Manchester City, Manchester United and Arsenal is an increasingly impossible task due to the huge financial inequality. Gone are the days of the great teams of Clough, Shankley and Revie or teams winning a European Cup with no international players. Football has changed and clubs and fans need to realise this and be thankful of what they have got rather than risking it all for a quick hit of glory.

In other news, the anticipation for Sundays decisive title showdown matches at Liverpool and Sunderland is picking up at quite a pace. Sunday will be the defining day in the title race; whoever is top going into the last day of the season will win the title because, let’s face it, Stoke and Wigan are not going offer anything resembling resistance at Old Trafford and Stamford Bridge. I especially look forward to the inevitability of Sir Alex Ferguson discussing this week the possibility that Liverpool will rest players and field a weakened side, thus bringing into question the integrity of the game, and once again showering himself in total hypocrisy.

Liverpool, of course, didn’t try when they beat Blackburn in 1995 on the last day of the season, a game Blackburn needed to win in order to win the league. Liverpool won and Blackburn won the title courtesy of United dropping points at West Ham. It’s a funny issue this ‘fielding a weakened team’ malarkey. It’s an issue brought back into mainstream consideration following Wolverhampton Wanderers’ totally unjustified suspended fine for fielding a ‘weakened team’ against…Oh, Manchester United earlier this season.

It’s complete naivety to think that Sir Alex Ferguson, or any other manager for that matter, will ever put the priorities of other clubs above their own. After all, United have consistently taken a half-arsed approach to end of season matches that meant nothing to them but have subsequently affected relegation issues. Case in point being Derby County in 2000/2001, a result that sent down Manchester City; or maybe West Brom getting a draw at Old Trafford that ultimately kept them up five years ago; or that 1-0 defeat to West Ham and Carlos Tevez two years ago that relegated Sheffield United; or maybe last season when they actually won at Hull with a reserve side out in a game that could have decided the fate of Newcastle United had they picked up points at Aston Villa. In all of those occasions Ferguson fielded a massively depleted side. I don’t recall them being handed fines for bringing into question the integrity of the league, no matter how much it still rankles with the teams they ultimately slapped in the face by giving their opponents more of a chance.

Liverpool will have next to no chance of finishing fourth on Sunday because I thoroughly expect both City and Spurs to pick up wins the previous day, but that is not to suggest they will just hand Chelsea a victory on Sunday. I expect Liverpool to give Chelsea a very tough game and, unfortunately, I think they may well force Chelsea to drop points and thus hand the title to United, but I wait with eager anticipation at the outpouring of hypocritical rubbish that will come from Ferguson and United fans should Chelsea win on Sunday.

 JC

Tottenham’s extraordinary double over Arsenal and Chelsea last week have thrust them into 4^th and, with four games to go, it is in their hands as to whether they can earn their place in Europe’s elite club competition. Certainly, you have to feel, looking at the fixtures, you can realistically discount Liverpool and Aston Villa from the race. Spurs currently have 64 points with 4 games to play, which include games at home to Bolton and away to Burnley on the final day. You’d assume Spurs will pick up six points from those and regardless of results at Old Trafford this weekend and away to Manchester City in May that will already put them out of reach of both Villa and Liverpool. Such a simplistic view defies the twists and turns that have thrilled us all season but logic would suggest that it is Spurs’ to lose. City’s defeat at home to United last weekend has suddenly plunged their season into doubt and cranked up the pressure on Roberto Mancini. They must now take something from their game at Arsenal on Saturday – a fixture riddled with sub-plots, including the potentially explosive return of Emmanual Adebayor whose stupidity marred City’s terrific win over the Gunners in September.

Spurs have also managed to rip the title race wide open by defeating Chelsea, who looked nailed on certainties since their win at Old Trafford last month. Now, with 3 games to play, one of which is away to Liverpool, there is a considerable amount of doubt as to whether Chelsea can do enough to hold off United. United will have to win all 3 games; there is no other route to the title for them. You have to assume Chelsea will win both of their games at home, putting almost everything on the trip to Anfield. Win there, and they win the title. It is that black and white.

Manchester United Vs Tottenham Hotspur (SKY SPORTS)

All of which means this match has a huge amount riding on it, the most in fact, since that classic final day clash in 1999 when United sealed the title with a 3-1 win. Spurs have been simply magnificent in the last two matches but they were both at the Lane and their limp performances away from home this season to top quality opposition does not make good reading. Yet they will be hugely confident and determined to go to Old Trafford and end a fairly miserable record there and almost wrap up 4^th place before having to travel to Eastlands in the final week of the season. One can’t help but feel, however, that United’s last gasp win at City last week, coupled with Chelsea’s demise at Spurs, will have United hungry and full of belief that they can pull off an unlikely title. With the advantage of playing early on Saturday they can really pile pressure on Chelsea before their game at home to Stoke on Sunday and Sir Alex Fergusons huge desire to win the 4^th successive title and overtake Liverpool’s all time record is well known. I expect United to just about edge it on Saturday but this is a game that could literally be anything.

Verdict: 2-1

Arsenal Vs Manchester City (ESPN)

City’s performance last week at home against United was hugely disappointing given the magnitude of the game. There was a distinct lack of passion or drive from too many in City shirts that was unacceptable given what was on offer if they had won that game. Having said that they now know what they need to do, and that is win most of their remaining fixtures, starting on Saturday. I cannot begin to explain why or how Arsenal lost that game at Wigan but, rather like City’s limp performance, it was totally unacceptable to both fans and manager. With the title gone Arsenal have little to play for but I expect them to perform and have a go at City. The Arsenal fans will be fired up for the game due in part to what happened at Eastlands six months ago and the players need to respond. From a City point of view I would fear an Arsenal backlash. It will be very interesting as to how Mancini approaches this game. He has had a tendency to be overly negative in games against difficult opposition, which can work in part to stifle Arsenal in midfield, where City should certainly overpower their opponents. Their problem will be whether they can cope defensively; I have my doubts that they will be able to deal with Walcott and Van Persie (should he start). I think this will be a cracker and I expect goals and drama.

Verdict: 2-2

Bolton Vs Portsmouth

Bolton are all but safe now after their tremendous win at Stoke last week and will look at this as the perfect fixture to make absolutely sure. Owen Coyle has done an OK job since taking the job and will be pleased to confirm their safety and look ahead to next season. Portsmouth played with great freedom and abandonment at home to Villa last Sunday and can do so for the rest of the league season as they look forward to their FA Cup final date. I expect Bolton to win on Saturday and confirm their place in the Premiership next year.

Verdict: 2-0

Hull Vs Sunderland

The situation is looking desperately bleak for Hull now. They would have looked at the remaining fixtures and really fancied their chances of survival before that horror show at home to Burnley. Since then, however, you just can’t see them winning a game of football and they were almost totally ineffective against Villa last night – a game they realistically had to win. I think this weekend will be decisive. West Ham have a very winnable game at home to Wigan and I don’t think Hull will be able to beat Sunderland. Steve Bruce’s side are in very good form and having a good end to the campaign. They have a chance of a top half finish, which I think would mark steady progress for the club, given how poor they were last season and given that horrible win-less run they endured mid season.

Verdict: 1-2

West Ham Vs Wigan

West Ham were absolutely dreadful at Anfield last Monday as they collapsed to a dismal 3-0 defeat without as much of a whimper. Having said that, they have also been terrific in the two previous matches in drawing at Everton and beating Sunderland. I think they will be fine in so much as Hull won’t collect enough points to catch them but there is a lot of work that needs doing over the summer to make sure they are stronger next year. Wigan will be full of confidence after that extraordinary comeback against Arsenal last week having done literally nothing for the vast majority of the game. This will be tight, but I sense the jubilation sensed by Wigan last week suggested they feel they are now safe – which they are – and they don’t need a result at Upton Park. West Ham need to earmark this game as a must win. Should Hull pull off a result against Sunderland, which I doubt, there are a tough couple of games for West Ham to negotiate after this if they do not win on Saturday.

Verdict: 1-0

Wolves Vs Blackburn

Wolves are safe; Mick McCarthy has done a terrific job at making them difficult to beat over the last month and those points have proved hugely valuable. As I said previously, I don’t see Hull collecting enough points to catch any of the teams above them and I certainly fancy wolves will pick up a few more anyway. Blackburn have had a very good season under Sam Allardyce. They are close to a top half finish, which would be a terrific achievement. This could well be one of those end of season clashes where the players relax and try and play some football. I suspect, however, that McCarthy will have his troops well drilled with the notion that they are not yet safe and I don’t expect them to play with too much freedom just yet.

Verdict: 1-1

Aston Villa Vs Birmingham (SKY SPORTS, SUNDAY)

This derby is often overlooked and overshadowed by derbies in London or the North West but make no mistake about it – this game matters. Make no mistake also that there is a good level of resentment and unease undercutting this game and there will be a lot of passion on show on Sunday in the stands. The early kick-off may make sense in terms of avoiding some unsavoury scenes off the field but it can be to the detriment of the contest. Villa have had a good week with back to back away wins, but at Villa Park they have only won once since the turn of the year. Birmingham have hit a run of bad form at the wrong time as far as this game is concerned but given that it’s a derby, form does go out of the window. I expect a Villa win but these games are impossible to predict. Villa have enjoyed a good run of results and fortune against their city rivals and there is a sense that it is maybe the Blues’ turn to win this one. They will also be keenly aware that should they win on Sunday, they will end Villa’s faint hopes of a top four finish.

Verdict: 1-0

Burnley Vs Liverpool (SUNDAY)

It is a matter of time until Burnley are relegated so they can approach this game will abandonment have a real go at what will be a tired Liverpool side. The effects of their long journey to Madrid may well affect this game but I still expect them to have far too much for Burnley. I don’t think Liverpool can finish 4^th regardless of whether they win their last 3 matches but Benitez will demand a strong finish.

Verdict: 0-2

Everton Vs Fulham

Everton’s hope of qualifying for Europe faded with Villa’s win at Hull last night and it is unlikely that can catch Liverpool either. They will rue the early weeks of the season because if they could have hit the ground running I have no doubt they would be challenging for a top four finish now. As it is, this really will be an end of season game. Fulham will doubtlessly be taking it easy after their trip to Hamburg and also in preparation for the second leg at the Cottage next week.

Verdict: 3-1

Chelsea Vs Stoke

Home banker. Chelsea’s title challenge rests on getting a result at Anfield in a couple of weeks. Stoke have gone off the boil in recent weeks but have still had a very good season.

Verdict: 3-0

JC

In the aforementioned article I wrote towards the end of August I stated that Villa were almost guaranteed a place in the top eight of the Premiership, finishing behind Tottenham and Manchester City due to their increased financial clout, and competing with Everton for (with the luck of cup results) the final European place. I’d venture a guess that this will probably be how the table ends up, though of course I don’t profess to have been able to predict the many twists and turns that have taken place along the way.

In all honesty I’m very proud of the team’s performance this season. I’ve seen a result at Old Trafford I never thought I’d see in my lifetime; I’ve seen us reach a cup final and return to Wembley again in another cup semi final; and I’ve seen us compete almost all the way with teams that on paper and on bank balance we have no right to be anywhere near. It is for that reason that I am totally dismayed by the lack of support coming forward for the team and Martin O’Neill from too large a section of Villa supporters. Expectation will never reflect reality but there is a distinct lack of perspective at Villa Park nor realisation at just how far O’Neill and Randy Lerner have moved the club forward – and done so in the right manner. I’ve heard on several supporter forums that O’Neill should go and he has taken the club as far as it can go. That is patently not true. I accept the fact that it will become an increasingly impossible task to catch up with the mulit-billion dollar project underway at Eastlands or with the established elite, but I refuse to concede that we cannot compete with a financially crumbling Liverpool or Tottenham. For once in my relative infantile memory as a Villa fan I’d love to see some stability at a club. For a club to move forward it needs stability and to maintain its position towards the right end of the table – that is consistency and not stagnation. For Villa to move forward and continue to improve year by year then O’Neill must stay. There is no chance whatsoever that Lerner would look to remove O’Neill, the suggestion in many a newspaper column is that O’Neill may feel the need to walk away. For either, it would be madness. I would not begrudge O’Neill leaving to manage Manchester United. He deserves the opportunity to be at one of the games giants and in many ways fits the mould that United will surely look for when they replace Sir Alex Ferguson. At Villa he has built a squad full of young, English talent with a sprinkling of foreigners who can easily adapt themselves to the nature of the English game. He has, on the whole, bought wisely and improved the players he has brought to the club and not relied on signing established top class players. The profiles and abilities of Ashley Young, James Milner and Gabriel Agbonlahor have flourished under O’Neill’s stewardship. Neither would I begrudge O’Neill leaving to manage Liverpool, assuming they seal a suitable takeover and sort themselves out of the field, who will always attract managers and players because of their heritage and success in the sport. I would, however, be absolutely dismayed if he just walked away feeling that he could not offer the club anymore. I’d be furious if he turned up at Eastlands next season as well – given that City offer nothing more than Villa other than a bottomless transfer kitty (which he wouldn’t be able to use given that the transfer policy there seems to be handled by everyone other than the manager).

This is a big summer for Villa. There is a feeling that the club is at the crossroads – an inevitable eventuality for clubs of similar size who have flirted with success only to fall just short. If this season shows anything at all, it is that the gulf to be bridged from 5th to 4th really is enormous in today’s game. Even with the riches at Manchester City’s disposal will they only just collapse over the line, if at all. That is not cause to give up. Villa, in the grand scheme of things, enjoy a very fortunate position in domestic English football, you only need to look at the clubs that have tumbled down the divisions and at the mess Portsmouth now find themselves in to underpin that point. This may well be a summer that O’Neill will have to sell one of the prized assets of Ashley Young or James Milner when one of the elite come calling or City tempt them with obscene wages.

It is unlikely O’Neill will be afforded much in the way of funds this summer and I don’t begrudge Lerner that. He has shelled out, on average, a net of £20 Million a year for the last four seasons, which for Villa is substantial. While many Villa supporters seem to feel that that outsourcing of cash has not equated to progress I dismiss that idea entirely. When O’Neill took charge the club was a mess with an average team, an ineffective and unenthusiastic manager and an outdated chairman. Under Lerner and O’Neill Villa have improved year on year and I believe can continue to do so. If the realities of the financial world mean that spending is put on hold or that we are required to sell then so be it but the club must remain under stable management. Replacing O’Neill would set the club back four years, not propel it forward. So while much is certain about the future for Martin O’Neill and Aston Villa, it remains a cast iron certainty that Villa need O’Neill if they hope to achieve the success the club is so desperate for. A top six finish is more than achievable given the way the fixtures fall for the rest of the season and that would be a terrific achievement for the club and would likely improve their season points tally for a fourth successive year. If there is something that is abundantly obvious in football is that stability breeds success – lasting success and not superficial or galactico success – and nowhere is this sentiment truer then at Villa Park.

JC